Laplace's rule of succession

["Scott H" <nospam>]

According to Laplace's treatment of the sunrise problem, if the sun rises 
2,000,000 times, its probability of rising tomorrow is exactly

2,000,001/2,000,002.

Help me understand this a little. If a man's child is locked behind a door, 
and the man bangs twice, is there only a 3/4 chance that he will bang it a 
third time?

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See my proof that the laws of nature are real.