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[apnic-talk] Predicted/predictable prediction - The exhaustion of IPv4 a

Subject: [apnic-talk] Predicted/predictable prediction - The exhaustion of IPv4 address space
From: Jeff Williams
Date: Tue, 18 Oct 2005 01:47:20 -0700
All former DNSO GA members or other interested stakeholders/users,

As one that has been involved somewhat and certainly following IPv6
events and development/deployment for a number of years, (nearly
a decade now) I find the following "Sky falling in" prediction,
predictable and somewhat self serving for ARIN, APNIC, RIPE,
Afnic, Lacnic, CISCO, et., al.

"Cisco has an [1]interesting article talking about estimates for the
exhaustion of the IPv4 address space, and the inevitable move to IPv6.
It predicts that the IPv4 address space will be exhausted in 2 - 10
years and suggests that it isn't worth trying to reclaim old
allocations. With the mainstream use of IPv6 now potentially within 
the ROI period of many products the manufacturers need to start
including support, but will the ISPs roll out native IPv6 networks 
before they absolutely have to? IMHO, ISPs providing native IPv6 support 
would be a Good Thing since it opens up the door for peer-to-peer 
technologies such as SIP without needing nasty NAT traversal hacks, but 
a major stumbling block seems to be a complete lack of IPv6 support on 
current consumer-grade DSL routers (tunneling over IPv4 is an option but 
requires more technical know-how from the end user)." Of course, Cisco 
may have some vested interest in driving up the IPv6-compatible router 
sales *cough*, but the bottom line is that the transition will have to 
happen at some point in the near future.


1.)
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_8-3/ipv4.html

Regards,

--
Jeffrey A. Williams
Spokesman for INEGroup LLA. - (Over 134k members/stakeholders strong!)
"Obediance of the law is the greatest freedom" -
   Abraham Lincoln

"Credit should go with the performance of duty and not with what is
very often the accident of glory" - Theodore Roosevelt

"If the probability be called P; the injury, L; and the burden, B;
liability depends upon whether B is less than L multiplied by
P: i.e., whether B is less than PL."
United States v. Carroll Towing  (159 F.2d 169 [2d Cir. 1947]
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